比之前更開放內需市場

[admin]

如下表所示，「十四五規劃」和之前的國家規劃不同，在此帖文將指出當中重點：

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▌ 沒有定立具體 GDP 增速要求，看重於國家經濟結構上優化
明顯的再沒有保七、成「十三五規劃」強調要做到2010時GDP的兩倍。由不追求數據的角度，顯示出國家對質量改善的決心。

▌ 充分利用向內（內需）及向外（國際）兩個市場
「十四五規劃」提出「以國內大循環為主體、國內國際雙循環相互促進的新發展格局」的經濟增長策略，和改革開放中期 2000 年時選擇以國際出口為主不同。當中有兩個方向：

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1. 消費結構升級，彌補外需不足：
在疫情下實施擴大內需戰略，去推動文化和旅遊的融合發展；推動現代服務業標準化、品牌化

2. 產業科技創新：重拾主導權
透過加快新基建：5G第五代移動通信、工業互聯網、大數據中心等建設；發展數位經濟digital economy產業聚落；研發新興產業，例如新一代信息技術、生物技術、新能源、新材料、高端裝備、新能源汽車、綠色環保以及航空航天、海洋裝備等產業。推動互聯網、大數據、人工智能等同各產業深度融合，望於科技創新領先全球。

[Ko Chi Kit]

相信大家都知道中國內地的儲蓄率十分高。熟讀中國經濟市場的學者都歸納出下列四個原因：

1)未來健康和教育的不確定性，要儲蓄給將來消費；2)老年時退休用；3)一孩政策下可以支援小朋友成長；4)結婚。

財富累積下，加上現時中國內地現在已經富起來（至少有城市的角度上是），真的是達到小康社會。

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不過，據Mc Kinsey Company 2020中國消費者調查報告顯示，

60%的受访者表示，即使感觉富有，但仍希望把钱花在“刀刃上”

。即是用於一些更優、更高質的產品上可以消費更多。這為消費帶來不穩定性。加上在疫情下，你我都會害怕會否患上疾病，也會預留不少儲蓄作「醫藥費」。有見及此，開放內需市場，於個人層面看似仍然成疑。

[Ko Chi Kit]

不過，在農村打開內需市場卻可行得多。

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現時有不少生物科技企業，如來自香港、深圳等，集合科研的力量，改良不少肥料，並教識當地農民使用，從而增加農產量。加上運用大數據分晰，現時內地正推行精確農業和電子商貿，做到線上落單、線下送貨。這內需市場還帶來以下好處：
-精確農業是一可持續的農業，藉科技知道泥土的土壤、水份、害蟲情況，從而減少使用額外化學肥料去增加產量和收入。這於美國南加洲農業十分有名。
-做到自給自足，當中國人口不斷上升，將來或有糧食短缺的問題。
-使農業地區也富起來。

[MoneyMan]

My two cents:

1. Money can be printed. USA is printing money massively. Is it Meaningful to produce products to earn such money?
2. Should China print money to develop its own social and economic structures. Printing money to do infrastructures has proved to be successful. Printing money for ctizens to earn is Meaningful.

[Tseung]

Had lunch with Mr. Fok Wai Hung on Jan 13, 2021.

Discussed the Outer and Inner Circulation policy in China. The outer circulation focuses on earning foreign printed money. It is good because that allowed higher employment within China. That also allowed more foreign currency to buy foreign goods.

The Inner Circulation enables Chinese Companies to earn the printed money from the Chiovernment. That also keeps employment high. But it also allows Chinese Government to direct resources according to its plans. The rate of growth can be planned. Growing at >8% GDP is not a problem. China can overtake USA according to its own timetable.

It looks like many people, including economists, do not appreciate the power of Earning the Printed Money from the Chinese Government. Let us expand on that.

(1) Many Economists already accepted “printing money to do Infrastructure project is good.” If most of the resources come from within, the result is even better. Printing 100 Billion RMB to build a railway will create an asset worth 100 Billion. That railway will help the transportation of China. The process of building the railway will create much employment or Meaningful Economic Activities. Even if the fares will not recoup the investment, it does not matter. The printed 100 Billion goes to the planners, workers, suppliers and improves their knowledge, skills and fatten their bank accounts.

(2) With Inner Circulation, China can print RMB (or better - increase DCEP with better control and monitor) to do Meaningful Economic Activities (MEAs). It is these MEAs that will raise the standard of living of the Citizens. It is these MEAs that will increase the GDP. It is these MEAs that will allow China to rise to new heights. It is these MEAs that will make the World as One Entity.

(3) Some of these MEAs can be:
a. Alleviate Poverty by loaning Smart Phones or Computers to the “poor”. These Smart Phones will increase the knowledge and capability of these “poor”. The debate was whether to grant or to loan. The advantage for loans is to encourage them to learn and teach others. The teaching will allow them to earn to repay the loans. The loans can be low, zero, or even at negative interest!

b. Many Nations have negative interests for large corporations – hoping that they will stimulate the economy more. China can innovate via stimulating the poor to acquire devices/tools to better themselves.

c. Negative Interest loan means when you borrow, you actually get a small amount of money monthly to pay back the loans. If the setup is for the borrower to use the tools to learn and earn more income, the setup will be regarded as a Meaningful Economic Activity.

(4) If left to Western Style Democracy, many politicians will try to please the Citizens by giving much more benefits - to the point of “benefits exceed work income”. That would make a Meaningful Economic Activity NOT Meaningful. The Think Tanks must educate the Public.

(5) Thus pouring resources into scientific research with no immediate return on investment can be MEAs. Providing more education or on-line courses to all Citizens can be MEAs.

(6) With Outer Circulation, the manufacturing will be guided by the “customer orders”. Such orders may pollute the environment or depart from the rising path of China. With Inner Circulation, the manufacturing will be guided not only by “citizen likings” but also by “what is beneficial “ to China in the long run. The Chinese Government may divert more resources to help the one-belt-one-road nations with the goal of making the World as One Entity. (For example, provide vaccines and help Nations to produce vaccines in this COVID-19 pandemic).

The Tanner Hill Workshop will be able to act as a “Think Tank” for Hong Kong, China and the World. It has the advantage of not needing income for its relatively wealthy members. Many members are very well educated and/or well connected…

[rose]

(6) With Outer Circulation, the manufacturing will be guided by the “customer orders”. Such orders may pollute the environment or depart from the rising path of China. With Inner Circulation, the manufacturing will be guided not only by “citizen likings” but also by “what is beneficial “ to China in the long run. The Chinese Government may divert more resources to help the one-belt-one-road nations with the goal of making the World as One Entity. (For example, provide vaccines and help Nations to produce vaccines in this COVID-19 pandemic).

I used to think: Make Money. Earn USD. That will help me, my Company and my Country. Produce what the customer wants.

Now things are getting much more complex. I have to think what are Meaningful Economic Activities (MEAs). What are the MEAs I can contribute!

But I like the concept that China's future is in China's own hands. Specify the plans and carry them out. Do not worry about comments from the Western Media.

If the World were One Entity, will it matter if I earn USD or RMB? If I were an Internet Giant, I would have access to Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Talent and Capital, almost any business becomes easy. Any Nation should become an Internet Giant so that it can plan on the welfare of its Citizens.

[Tseung]

If the World were One Entity, will it matter if I earn USD or RMB? If I were an Internet Giant, I would have access to Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Talent and Capital, almost any business becomes easy. Any Nation should become an Internet Giant so that it can plan on the welfare of its Citizens.

If the World were One Entity, we can think of the World as One Nation. It will be the duty of the Government to ensure all Citizens (all humans on Earth) have enough food, clothing, housing, medication, education, retirement, social benefits, opportunities, etc.

Previously, without Computers, Internet or Big Data, catering for every human being on Earth was an impossible task. Now the Internet Giants have shown that such a task is possible. If the Internet Giant Capabilities are coupled with the Money Supply Capability of the Government, a whole New World will emerge.

There will be no distinction of Outer and Inner Circulation. All will be Inner Circulation. All races will be treated fairly within this one Nation. All will receive basic education via the Internet. Knowledge from one individual (or entity) will become the knowledge of all. There may be disparity of income or wealth but all will have enough to eat and live in comfort.

Will that be an ideal society? Or should we have two or multi-camp setups as that will have competition?

[MoneyMan]

If the World were One Entity, will it matter if I earn USD or RMB? If I were an Internet Giant, I would have access to Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Talent and Capital, almost any business becomes easy. Any Nation should become an Internet Giant so that it can plan on the welfare of its Citizens.

If the World were One Entity, we can think of the World as One Nation. It will be the duty of the Government to ensure all Citizens (all humans on Earth) have enough food, clothing, housing, medication, education, retirement, social benefits, opportunities, etc.

Previously, without Computers, Internet or Big Data, catering for every human being on Earth was an impossible task. Now the Internet Giants have shown that such a task is possible. If the Internet Giant Capabilities are coupled with the Money Supply Capability of the Government, a whole New World will emerge.

There will be no distinction of Outer and Inner Circulation. All will be Inner Circulation. All races will be treated fairly within this one Nation. All will receive basic education via the Internet. Knowledge from one individual (or entity) will become the knowledge of all. There may be disparity of income or wealth but all will have enough to eat and live in comfort.

Will that be an ideal society? Or should we have two or multi-camp setups as that will have competition?

I talked to a Venture Capitalist investing in China. He said: "The Chinese Engineers have no concept of Nine to five. They practically sleep in the factory or office. The China speed is due to 24 hours, 7 days a week by the elite. Investing in them is a bargain."