6d. 科學事實觀: 十大思維迷誤區

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6d. 科學事實觀: 十大思維迷誤區

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十大思維迷誤區
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reference: Factfulness by Hans Rosling

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Re: 6d. 科學事實觀: 十大思維迷誤區

文章 lucent »

第六 推卸責任給別人是很常見的思維方式

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Re: 6d. 科學事實觀: 十大思維迷誤區

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宿命論也可以看成是有色眼鏡: 將以前印象普遍化為固化看法
中國人在海外代表中國旅客,究竟給人什麼形象呢? Shawn Zheng 在Barcleona 發表了他對不同族羣觀察。
Answer to Do Chinese know that Chinese tourists are looked down in many parts of the world?
[ur]lhttps://www.quora.com/Do-Chinese-know-that-Chin ... rid=ukziFK[/url]

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Andy Rooney: people generally agree with the facts as truths only if they agree with their perceptions

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Americans : the 3 Misconceptions That should be Rectified.
Misconception #1
Most of what Americans spend their money on is "made in China"


Fact: Just 2.7% of personal consumption expenditures go to Chinese-made goods and services. 88.5% of U.S. consumer's spending is on
American-made goods and services.
A common rebuttal was, "How can it be only be 2.7% when almost everything in Wal-Mart are "made in China?" The answer is simple: Wal-Mart's $260 billion in revenue isn't exactly reflective of America's $14.5 trillion economy. Wal-Mart might sell a broad range of knickknacks, many of which are made in China, but the vast majority of what Americans spend their money on is not knickknacks.
The figure comes from a Federal Reserve report. Bureau of Labor Statistics closely tracks how an average American spends their money in an annual survey: Consumer Expenditure Survey. In 2010, an average American spent 34% of their income on housing, 13% on food, 11% on insurance and pensions, 7% on health and 2% on education. Those categories alone make up nearly 70% of total spending, all of which comprised almost entirely of American-made goods and services (only 7% of food is imported, according to the USDA).
Even when looking at physical goods alone, Chinese imports only account for just a small fraction of U.S. spending. Just 6.4% of nondurable goods -- things like food, clothing and toys -- purchased in the U.S. are made in China; 76.2% are made in America. For durable goods -- things like cars and furniture -- 12% are made in China; 66.6% are made in America.
Another way to grasp the value of Chinese-made goods is to look at imports. The U.S. is on track to import $340 billion worth of goods from China in 2020, which is 2.3% of American's $14.5 trillion economy.
Part of the misconception is likely driven by the notion that America's manufacturing base has been in steep decline. The truth, surprising to many, is that real manufacturing output today is near an all-time high. What's dropped precipitously in recent decades is manufacturing employment. Technology and automation has allowed American manufacturers to build more stuff with far fewer workers than in the past. One good example: In 1950, an U.S. Steel plant, Gary Ind., produced 6 million tons of steel with 30,000 workers. Today, it produces 7.5 million tons with 5,000 workers. Output has gone up; employment has dropped like a rock.
Misconception #2
We owe most of our debt to China.


Fact: China owns 7.8% of U.S. government debt outstanding.
As of August, China owned $1.14 trillion of Treasuries. Government debt stood at $14.6 trillion in late 2020. That's 7.8%.
Who owns the rest? The largest holder of U.S. debt is the federal government itself. Various government trust funds like the Social Security trust fund own about $4.4 trillion worth of Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve owns another $1.6 trillion. Both are unique owners: Interest paid on debt held by federal trust funds is used to cover a portion of federal spending, and the vast majority of interest earned by the Federal Reserve is remitted back to the U.S. Treasury.
The rest of America's debt is owned by state and local governments ($700 billion), private domestic investors ($3.1 trillion), and other non-Chinese foreign investors ($3.5 trillion).
Does China own a lot of America's debt? Yes, but it's a qualified yes. Of all Treasury debt held by foreigners, China is indeed the largest owner ($1.14 trillion), followed by Japan ($937 billion) and the U.K. ($397 billion).
Right there, you can see that Japan and the U.K. combined own more U.S. debt than China. Now, how many times had an American heard someone say that America borrow an inordinate amount of money from Japan and the U.K.? Never. But how often do people hear some version of "China is our banker" ? Far too often.
Misconception #3
America get most of its oil from the Middle East.


Fact: Just 9.2% of oil consumed in the U.S. comes from the Middle East.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S.A. consumes 19.2 million barrels of petroleum products per day. Of that amount, a net 49% is produced domestically. The rest is imported.
Where is it imported from? Only a small fraction comes from the Middle East, and that fraction has been declining in recent years. In 2018, imports from the Persian Gulf region -- which includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates -- made up 9.2% of total petroleum supplied to the U.S. In 2001, that number was 14.1%.
The U.S. imports more than twice as much petroleum from Canada and Mexico than it does from the Middle East. Adding in the share produced within USA, the majority of petroleum consumed in the U.S. comes from North America.
America relies on imports for about half of its oil. As such, should the Middle East get the attention it does when we talk about oil reliance? In terms of security and geopolitical stability, perhaps. In terms of volume, probably not.

"People will generally accept facts as truth only if the facts agree with what they already believe," said Andy Rooney. When can such misconceptions be rectified ? I wonder...................

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